Progress is a funny thing. As Bruce Gibney noted in the Founders Fund Manifesto, we were expecting to have flying cars by now, but ended up with 140 characters instead. What gives?
And Mr. Gibney isn’t the only one to question progress. From Nassim Taleb to Evgeny Morozov, a fair number of highly intelligent and very well informed people are arguing that, for all of the hubbub, what we consider to be technological progress isn’t really all that meaningful.
I believe that much of the criticism stems from a misunderstanding about the function and purpose of technology. While skeptics are right to point out that the basic functionality of many inventions hasn’t improved for decades (or even centuries), our goal for the future should not be to merely improve upon the past, but to advance beyond it.
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It’s easy to become jaded about announcements in the tech world. Slick, media savvy CEO’s announce “revolutionary” new products with metronomic regularity. Version 1.0 becomes 1.1 and eventually 2.0 and on and on. It all seems like a blur.
Meanwhile, the truly groundbreaking stuff often goes unnoticed (neither the transistor nor the microchip were instant hits). Genuine paradigm shifts come in strange guises, with little tangible effect on immediate life and often take decades to make an impact.
Nevertheless, we should take notice at the recent news of the Google-NASA quantum computing partnership which marks the beginning of a new digital paradigm. Although we must account for that which is beyond our present understanding, even the projects currently underway promise a future that seems more science fiction than science fact.
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Summer is here! If you’re anything like me, you’ll be spending countless hours in the sun, with a cold beer and a good book. The warmer months are always a great time to catch up on some reading between all of the ballgames and barbecues.
Most likely, you’ll pack in a few of the bestsellers on the shelves this year and there’s nothing wrong with that. There is always something to be said for popularity (psychologists even call it “social proof”).
Yet I’ve found that some of the best books often fall through the cracks. So this summer, I’m focusing my reading list on great titles that you probably never heard of, but are among the best you’ll ever find. As always, you can purchase the books by clicking on the links provided. So have a great summer, happy reading and remember to wear sunblock read more…
In the old days, marketers sought to identify a target consumer and would then spend millions to catch her at the right time, in the right place, with the right message. Success was like winning the lottery, you were never quite sure what you had until the results were in.
In the digital age, we identify a target market; bombard them with banner ads, online videos and tweets. If we get a good response, we bombard them some more. Has anything really changed?
The truth is that while media has been transformed, marketing practice has not kept pace. We throw budgets into different buckets, but the decision-making process remains much the same. You develop a theory of the case, test it in-market and then, if it goes well, do it some more. A true digital revolution in marketing has yet to take hold, but it has begun.
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In the first half of the 20th century, Socialism looked like the way of the future. When Nikita Khrushchev said in 1956, “We will bury you,” he had good reason to be optimistic. The Soviet system had seemingly produced an economic miracle.
We now know better. Socialism failed miserably in just about every way you can think of. Today, virtually every economy is a market economy and the ones that aren’t are basket cases. The central debate of the last century was settled long before this one began.
However, even as market systems have proved triumphant, market failures have become increasingly problematic Crashes have become more frequent and more extreme. Broad market solutions to social problems such as crime and pollution still elude us. To solve today’s problems, we need to seek out new solutions and, increasingly, are finding them.
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In 1981, IBM was one of the world’s largest companies, but faced a growing threat from the rise of personal computing. Having lost out on the minicomputer revolution of the 1970’s, they were determined not to repeat their earlier mistake.
So instead of trying to develop a product through their usual process, which normally took four years, Don Estridge was dispatched to Boca Raton, Florida to create an innovation team that would work outside the IBM system. A year later, the IBM PC was born.
It was one of history’s great success stories. A large and prosperous company owns up to the realization that “business as usual” won’t cut it, adapts and prevailed. Yet the concept of innovation teams has taken some criticism lately. First from Apple CEO Tim Cook in a Businessweek interview, and more recently from Greg Gretsch in VentureBeat.
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In the Terminator series, John Connor and his mother fought to prevent Judgement Day, the moment when the computer system Skynet becomes self aware, decides humans are a threat and moves to wipe us out.
In the real world, we have our own version of Judgement Day called the Singularity and many can’t wait for it to come. Like in the Terminator it is the moment when computers take over, but rather than killing us off the machines enhance us.
Some have called the Singularity a nerd rapture. Its prophet is Ray Kurzweil, one of the world’s foremost experts on artificial intelligence and the new Director of Engineering at Google, where he will direct a good portion of the company’s $6.7 billion R&D budget to making his vision come true. Like it or not, science fiction is becoming science fact.
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Many think of TV as a dinosaur of the past. With the rise of social media and other new technology platforms, new media types predict that its days are numbered, soon to be buried under an avalanche of disruptive change. Yet it lives on, despite the skeptics.
In fact, it thrives. TV programming has never been more diverse or of higher quality. My 3-year old learns math concepts on Team Umizoomi while I never miss an episode of Game of Thrones. From scripted shows to talent shows to reality shows, we remain riveted.
For all the talk about cord cutting, viewership remains strong and TV’s share of the ad market is actually higher than it was a decade ago. In fact, the industry is going through a renaissance of sorts, where old models are mixing with new ones to create a vibrant new marketplace for content. For sure, the economics of TV are changing, but for the better.
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On July 16th, 1945, when the world’s first nuclear explosion shook the plains of New Mexico, J. Robert Oppenheimer, it’s creator, quoted from the Bhagavad Gita, “Now I am become Death, the destroyer of worlds.”
And indeed he had. The world was never truly the same after that, although mostly for the better. We now live longer, happier, healthier lives and are vastly less likely to die a violent death or to face persecution for our religious beliefs, skin color or sexual orientation.
However, the immense power troubled Oppenheimer, as it did many other scientists who understood it. I can’t shake the feeling that today, as we unlock even more powerful technologies, we have lost some of that reverence. For even as technology opens up new worlds, it closes doors to old ones. We should choose thoughtfully and carefully.
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Ever since I bought my first Macintosh for college over 20 years ago, I’ve been a big fan of Apple. I love their products. I love their stores. I even love the very idea of Apple.
My family and I are fully embedded in its technological ecosystem (2 Macbooks, 2 iPads, 2 iPhones, an AirPort and an Apple TV) and I have an indirect financial interest in the stock through a fund, so nobody wants Apple to do well more than I do.
Nevertheless, I’ve become skeptical about its future. The death of Steve Jobs, the maps debacle, stiffening competition, a relative dearth of new product launches along with the recent earnings report give ample room for doubt whether Apple is still the company we once knew. There is still have time to right the ship, but it’s running out.
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