Happy 16th Birthday Digital Tonto!
Much of what this blog has become was born in the winter of 2004 on Independence Square in Kyiv. It was there, with the uncertainty and confusion of the Orange Revolution swirling around us, that we stood shivering in the cold. We didn’t know what would become of us, or of Ukraine, or of anything, except that we hoped for something better.
I’ve spent much of the ensuing two decades trying to make sense of what happened during those days. Why were those in power so powerless to shape events? What was that energy that seemed to cascade through the crowds? How does a status quo that seemed so entrenched for so long, then seem to disappear in an instant?
I found some answers, wrote articles and books about them. But new questions continue to emerge, especially now that we appear to be at an inflection point and a confluence of forces are pushing us toward a major realignment. So I’m still trying to figure it all out and writing about it. I’m glad you’ve chosen to join me. Here are my favorite articles from the past year:
We Need To Break The Disruption Mindset
Since Clayton Christensen published The Innovator’s Dilemma in 1997, disruption has been the pundits’ buzzword of choice. But what if our obsession with disruption is actually getting in the way? What if our obsession with disruption is undermining competitiveness?
The truth is that creating a sense of disruption doesn’t accelerate transformation—it undermines it. It impairs creativity, drains morale, fuels change fatigue, and triggers resistance. We need to abandon the disruption mindset, pursue fewer changes, make sure we bring people along and that we see those changes through.
If you want to bring genuine change about you need to start by creating a sense of safety around the change conversation. You do that by approaching transformation with a sense of empathy, identifying shared values and building trust. Meaningful change can’t be mandated or forced, it can only be empowered.
Here’s How To Think About Artificial Intelligence, Jobs And The Economy
With AI emerging as a powerful force in the economy, everybody is wondering what the effect will be on human work. Will AI take our jobs? Or will it clear the way for unprecedented prosperity and a new era of human endeavor? With all of the punditry and hype, it’s hard to make sense of it all.
Fortunately, economists have been studying automation for a long time and have come up with solid frameworks to understand the three effects that drive it: displacement, productivity and reinstatement. Every technology wave involves all three, but their proportions determine how they shape the world we live in.
What’s most important is to understand that technology and markets don’t work in isolation. The choices we make matter. That means the future of work isn’t something that just happens to us—it’s something we shape through the policies we craft, the skills we develop, and the values we choose to prioritize. If we want AI to empower rather than displace, we need to be intentional about how we integrate it.
The Evidence Behind Why Big Transformations Start Small
All too often, we see change as linear, so we treat it like a normal project. We formulate objectives, create timelines, and expect to drive steady progress. We aim to start with a bang, believing that the faster we start, the faster we’ll get to where we’re going. So we pull out all the stops to get things going quickly.
But we have decades of research that shows that’s not true. In fact, trying to start too fast can often derail a change initiative by triggering resistance too early. What we know is that change starts at the edges and takes hold among a small group of enthusiasts. They adopt the idea cautiously at first, but their success encourages others to follow more aggressively.
In this post, I walk through the evidence—how we know what we know—and what it means for how we shape change. You’ll come away with a better understanding of how change works in practice, along with actionable steps to help you achieve the impact you’re aiming for.
Why Leaders Need To Master Tribal Signals
We’ve been conditioned to think of “tribal” behavior as primitive, unbefitting our modern, sophisticated management techniques. Yet that’s not really true. We continue to be driven by primordial instincts and, as research by behavioral psychologist Michael Morris shows, that can be a very good thing, once we learn how to shape those forces.
This post explores how deeply rooted instincts—our peer signals, hero signals, and ancestor signals—shape how we connect, lead, and follow. It challenges us to reconsider leadership not just in terms of vision, but in how we tap into identity and belonging.
Perhaps most importantly, you can harness these forces to bring people in, expand your tribe, and make a more profound impact. You can use this practical framework for channeling tribal instincts to build broader coalitions and drive real collective action.
Why Resistance to Change So Often Defies Logic
Change consultants often suggest we look for a “root cause,” but that’s often a fool’s errand. You’ll not only drive yourself crazy running in circles, you’re also likely to lend credibility to their attacks. As Pixar’s Ed Catmull has put it, we need to treat new ideas like they’re ugly babies. We need to protect them, until they can grow to be big and beautiful.
Even when the stakes are life or death, the inertia of the status quo can feel safer than embracing the unknown, thanks to our brain chemistry, social networks, and the need for psychological security. People often don’t change when confronted with facts, instead they question the evidence.
In this post you’ll learn why resistance is predictable, how it shows up in cognitive, emotional, and social forms, and most importantly, what to do about it: cultivate early coalitions, shield emerging ideas, and build social momentum to transform resistance into engagement. A must-read for anyone who wants to lead change.
The End of History All Over Again…
I grew up in the 70s and 80s, when the big debate was between communism and capitalism. When the Berlin wall fell it seemed, as Francis Fukuyama put it, like the “End of History.” We in the west felt triumphant. Our system had triumphed and our way of life had been validated.
Yet even then there were warning signs. Fukuyama himself warned that the human urge to assert identity remained and would eventually reassert itself. The fault lines were never about just policies, but identities and the need to be recognized. That’s what we are seeing unfold today, as liberal institutions are under attack as never before.
The real story isn’t that systems are failing. It’s that the values meant to hold them together are coming apart. Dominance never lasts unless it’s anchored in dignity and shared identity. If we want to rebuild, we need to start by rethinking who we are, what we stand for, and how we relate to one another.
3 Strategic Tools Every Changemaker Needs In Their Toolbox
In more than two decades of studying how change happens, I’ve seen a lot. What separates success from failure usually comes down to building a sound strategy, focusing on bringing people in, and, if we’re being honest, a lot of trial and error. You experiment, learn, adapt, and build on what works.
Still, there are a few tools that show up again and again. Crafting a “contract” to anchor shared values, creating “co-optable resources” to empower others, and designing strategic dilemmas to force your opponents to make critical choices, these are essential skills every aspiring changemaker should keep in their toolbox.
If you’re currently working on a change initiative, you should definitely check this post out. I can almost guarantee you’ll find something to help you.
We’ve all been sold the myth of the “Eureka moment”—that flash of genius that appears and solves everything in an instant. But this post tears down that illusion. Using stories from Archimedes to the development of penicillin, it shows that real breakthroughs rarely happen in a single epiphany.
Instead, they’re built through slow, messy work, dead ends, blind alleys, and relentless perseverance. It’s during those incubation periods, when it seems like nothing is going on, that the big creative breakthroughs inevitably come. The trick is to learn how to integrate fast work—to get things done—with slow work that creates long-term value.
Innovation needs exploration, and exploration can’t be rushed. If you don’t explore, you won’t discover. If you don’t discover, you won’t invent. And if you don’t invent, you will be disrupted. It’s just a matter of time.
To Innovate, Leaders Need To Empower The Edges
Pundits often advise leaders to get out to the “edges,” because that’s where innovation tends to happen. It’s people at the periphery who are closest to the customers, work directly with partners and suppliers, and can spot nascent trends long before the bigwigs back at headquarters.
Yet what the pundits often miss is that whatever time leaders spend with the “edges,” is time they can’t spend on other critical priorities, like product development, investor relations, streamlining operations and myriad other things that are crucial to an organization’s success. Getting out to the edges might not be the right choice for everyone.
A better approach may be to empower the edges to advocate for themselves. Yet few organizations train their people to navigate stakeholders, build a persuasive case, and overcome resistance. This post shows you how to change that.
3 Stupid Things Leaders Often Think
Leaders don’t set out to fail. They try to do the right things: hire talented people, drive execution, and motivate teams. But even smart, well-meaning leaders can fall into bad mental habits and buy into ways of thinking that feel right, but actually undermine their effectiveness.
This post breaks down three of the most common traps. The first is believing that the problem is “our people” rather than the culture we created. The second is trying to create urgency instead of providing clarity and direction. And the third is assuming a strategy was great but failed in execution, when in reality, a strategy that can’t be executed isn’t a good strategy at all.
Each of these beliefs can feel intuitive, but they lead to wasted energy, high turnover, and failed initiatives. If you want to lead more effectively, you need to challenge the assumptions behind your actions. This post will help you do just that.
